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Polish opposition leader Tusk declares win after exit poll shows ruling conservatives lose majority_我的网站

一 |           　　近日，莱芜至临沂高速铁路(莱临高铁)正式纳入国家“十五五”交通规划的消息引发关注。    WARSAW, Poland -- Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk declared the beginning of a new era for his country after opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday's parliamentary election to oust the governing nationalist conservative party.That party, Law and Justice, has bickered with allies and faced accusations of eroding rule of law at home in its eight years in power. It appeared that voters were mobilized like never before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the communist authorities in 1989. In some places people were still in line when polling officially closed, but all were allowed to vote. If the result predicted by an exit poll holds, Law and Justice won but also lost. It got more seats than any other party but not enough to be able to lead a government that can pass laws in the legislature. The Ipsos exit poll suggested that Law and Justice obtained 200 seats. Its potential partner, the far-right Confederation got 12 seats, a showing the party acknowledged was a defeat.It also showed that three opposition parties have likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm. The largest of the groups is Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, a former prime minister and former European Union president. It won 31.6% of votes, the exit poll said. “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” Tusk told his cheering supporters.“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is end of Law and Justice rule," Tusk added.Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the ambiguous result. He told supporters at his headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote, according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row. “We must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this (political) project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed," Kaczynski said.If the result holds, and Law and Justice is the single party with the most seats, then it would most likely get the first chance to try to build a government.It falls to President Andrzej Duda, who is an ally of Law and Justice, to tap a party to try to form a government.Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Polsat News that Duda “will entrust the mission of forming the government to the winning party and in this first step we will certainly try to build a parliamentary majority."Three opposition parties, Tusk's Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, a leader of the Left party, vowed to work with the others to “create a democratic, strong, reasonable and predictable government.”Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, the head of election campaign for Third Way, called it a “huge day for our democracy.”Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.At stake are the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.LGBTQ+ rights activist Bart Staszewski called it the end of a “nightmare” for himself as a gay man and others.“This is just the beginning of reclaiming of our country. The fight is ahead but we are breathing fresh air today,” Staszewski said.Environmental activist Dominika Lasota was emotional with relief, saying “we have our future.”Law and Justice has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.During the campaign many Poles described the vote as the most important one since 1989, when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.Turnout Sunday appeared to be even higher than the 63% of voters who turned out for the 1989 election that led to the ouster of the communists. Despite many uncertainties ahead, what appeared certain was that support for the governing party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 when it won nearly 44% of the vote, its popularity dented by high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.There is a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists. A political change could open the way for the EU to release billions of euros in funding that has been withheld over what the EU viewed as democratic erosion.Piotr Buras, of the European Council of Foreign Relations, said the opposition had gained from “growing fatigue” with the government among Poles, "beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals.” The fate of Poland's relationship with Ukraine was also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in Russia's war. Its poor showing will be a relief for Kyiv.A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues was held simultaneously. Some government opponents called on voters to boycott the referendum, saying it was an attempt by the government to galvanize its supporters. Many voters were seen refusing to take part in the referendum.___Associated Press journalists Kwiyeon Ha, Pietro De Cristofaro and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。这条横跨三市的城际通道，将与济莱高铁接轨，进一步填补鲁中高铁网的关键断点。纳入国家相关规划后，该项目下一步会进行哪些工作?济莱高铁“南端断头”困局，能否借此契机彻底破解?济南及山东中部的南北交通与经济格局，又将迎来怎样的改变?      　　莱临高铁纳入国家规划      　　多年推进迎里程碑节点      　　莱临高铁，这条牵动济南、泰安、临沂三地的高铁线路，走向如何?推进至哪个阶段?后续又将面临哪些考验?      　　作为山东省“八纵六横”高铁网的重要组成部分，莱临高铁是省会都市圈与鲁南经济圈最便捷的城际客运通道，也是京沪辅助通道山东段的重要补充，更是京津冀至长三角的便捷高速客运通道之一。按照规划，线路自济莱高铁钢城站引出，经泰安新泰市、临沂蒙阴县、沂南县，终至日兰高铁临沂北站，全长113.67公里。     　　回望项目推进历程，层级提升脉络清晰。2023年11月，莱临高铁项目纳入《山东省综合立体交通网规划纲要(2023—2035年)》，完成省级顶层布局;同年12月，列入《山东省“十四五”综合交通运输中期调整重点项目库》。此后，济南、临沂两市连续多年在政府工作报告中提到推动项目建设，山东铁投集团也曾提及协调推进前期工作。此次跻身国家规划，标志着项目从省级布局迈入国家建设序列，是前期推进的里程碑。     　　一位业内人士透露，纳入国家相关规划后，项目前期工作将提速，接下来将加快可行性研究、地质勘察、初步设计等核心工作，并办理用地预审、环评等前置要件，逐项破解建设前置难题，为正式开工打下基础。“纳入国家相关规划是重要一步，相当于有了建设依据，根据前置条件完成情况和资金状况，纳规到开工一般还有3—5年时间。”      　　值得一提的是，该项目建设也面临多重现实挑战。线路穿越鲁中南山地丘陵与沂蒙山区，地形起伏大、地质条件复杂，桥隧占比较高，长大隧道施工、高边坡防护等技术难度显著高于平原地区。

二 | 同时，沿线途经生态管控区域，对于工程建设与生态保护的平衡要求更高。     　　此外，线路跨三市多区县，征迁协调、配套路网衔接等工作需多方统筹，都是后续推进中要破解的课题。     　　终结济莱“断头路”      　　盘活线路释放路网效能      　　莱临高铁最直接的价值，是终结济莱高铁南端“断头”现状，让这条线路真正融入全省高铁网络。     　　2022年底通车的济莱高铁，北起济南东站，南至钢城站，是济南都市圈向南延伸的核心城际线路。但通车以来，线路南端无接续高铁线路，客流主要以济南主城区与莱芜、钢城的市域通勤为主，南向跨市通达能力不足，运输潜力与辐射范围始终受到限制。     　　山东大学齐鲁交通学院副教授、山东大学交通规划设计研究中心主任张汝华表示，济莱高铁的定位本就不只是市域通勤线，更是鲁中高铁网南北向的重要骨架。“断头路的状态，相当于把这条骨架的南端堵死了，线路只能服务局部客流，没法发挥通道价值。”      　　莱临高铁建成后，将通过钢城站与济莱高铁无缝衔接，为济莱高铁打开南向出口。

三 |      　　届时，济莱高铁将从末端市域线路，升级为全省南北高铁通道的关键组成部分，客流结构从单一市域通勤拓展为跨市多元客流，线路利用率与运输效能将得到系统性提升。     　　对济南枢纽而言，这同样是重要的功能升级。此前济南南向高铁主要依赖京沪高铁干线，通道压力持续增长。莱临高铁打通后，济南将新增一条南向直达鲁南的高铁通道，有效分流京沪高铁部分客流，强化省会枢纽南向辐射能力，让济南都市圈的影响力，顺着高铁线路向南延伸至鲁南腹地。

四 |      　　济临一小时直连      　　两大经济圈牵起发展主轴      　　当济莱与莱临高铁连成一线，改变的不只是一条线路的命运，更是两座城市、两大经济圈的联动格局。     　　此前，济南至临沂的高铁需经京沪高铁绕行曲阜，再转日兰高铁抵达，线路弯折绕行，通行效率存在明显提升空间。莱临高铁通车后，济南可经济莱、莱临高铁直达临沂北站，形成两地间最顺直的高铁通道，时空距离大幅压缩，正式迈入1小时通勤圈。     　　从区域发展视角看，这条直连通道是省会经济圈与鲁南经济圈最核心的客运纽带。省会经济圈拥有科创、金融、高端制造等资源优势，鲁南经济圈则在商贸物流、现代农业、红色文旅领域特色鲜明，此前受交通距离限制，两地产业协同大多停留在浅层合作。高铁直连带来的时空压缩，将大幅降低商务往来、人才流动、产业协作的成本。济南的科研成果可以更快在鲁南落地转化，临沂的商贸物流也能更好对接省会消费市场，两大经济圈从“各自发力”转向“联动融合”，形成支撑鲁中南高质量发展的经济主轴。     　　更具民生意义的是，线路将高铁真正开进了沂蒙腹地。蒙阴、沂南等区县长期处于高铁覆盖盲区，沿线群众外出多依赖公路交通，务工、求学、就医的时间成本较高。莱临高铁建成后，不仅让山区群众在家门口就能搭乘高铁出行，更将沂蒙红色文旅资源、生态特色农产品纳入全省高铁经济圈，带动乡村产业升级，为沂蒙革命老区的乡村振兴注入交通动能。     　　补全鲁中南北大通道      　　完善山东高铁网络布局      　　放眼全省高铁网络布局，莱临高铁的价值远不止于连接济南与临沂。它的落地，让规划多年的滨淄莱临高铁通道补上了关键一环。

五 |      　　作为山东省“八纵六横”高铁网中的“纵四”通道，滨淄莱临高铁北起滨州，经淄博、济南莱芜向南直抵临沂，是贯穿山东中部的南北向高铁主干道。目前北段滨淄莱高铁已启动方案研究工作，南段莱临高铁成功纳入国家规划，整条通道的建设框架拉开，困扰鲁中多年的南北向高铁空白将得到填补。     　　这条鲁中南北通道的另一重战略价值，是解决了当前京沪二通道山东段的绕行问题。正在建设的京沪高铁二线山东段，自滨州向东经东营、潍坊后向南延伸，再向西折返至临沂，形成了明显的带有弧度走向的线路，既拉长了通行距离，也让鲁中腹地的新泰、蒙阴等区县无法直接享受干线高铁红利。相比之下，滨淄莱临高铁沿鲁中中轴线一路向南，线路顺直度更高，既能覆盖京沪二通道的服务盲区、完善县域高铁覆盖，又能作为京沪辅助通道的补充部分，与京沪二通道形成“一东一中”的双通道格局，有效分流干线客流，提升全省南北向高铁通行的灵活性。     　　从全国路网格局来看，这条通道北端衔接津潍高铁可快速通达京津冀城市群，南端在临沂衔接日兰高铁与在建的潍宿高铁，向南可直达长三角地区，形成一条贯穿鲁中、连接两大国家级城市群的客运新走廊。它不仅能完善山东的高铁网络布局，更能巩固山东在全国南北交通格局中的枢纽地位。

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